Category Archives: Somaliland

Muslim Ban? Fragile States?

 

Here’s Trump’s list of banned Muslim countries in red, and the ones where he has business interests are in gold. The unlabeled one at the uper right is Azerbaijan.

Trump's Muslim Ban Countries

Trump’s Muslim Ban Countries

And here’s a fragile states index for the region.

Fragile States Worst

Fragile States Worst

The banned countries are places where the governments have basically collapsed. People are complaining about the relationship between Trump businesses and the presence or absence of a ban. I’m not justifying, nor am I criticizing, I’m just noting that here is some data that hasn’t commonly appeared in conjunction with the coverage of the issue.

This map originally appeared in Fragile States Index 2016.

Fragile States Index 2016

The Fragile States Index 2016 was just mentioned on beBee and I saw a nice dataset to visualize in Tableau. Here is the original high resolution image:

2016fragilestates

And here is the image that resulted from my very simple import of the data into a Tableau workbook:

FragileStates2016Tableau.png

The states of the Mideast, North Africa, and the Horn of Africa have been an interest of mine for the past several years. Here’s a nit with Tableau, but it’s probably a deficit on my part – the only way I could make Syria visible would be to suppress the appearance of Lebanon. Tableau also treats Western Sahara as Terra Nullius, when it’s an ongoing problem between Morocco which administers it and Algeria which hosts many refugees.

MENAFragileStates.png

Here are the grimmest of the grim, seven states with fragility scores in excess of 110. Iraq is one bad summer away from joining them.

FragileStatesWorst.png

I’ve made a copy of the Fragile States 2016 workbook available. I really should start pulling in other data, but what I want here would be food and water security information, and that’s often scattered and dated.

Libya Breaking Up Just As Sudan Did?

I saw Battle Of Control For Southern Libya this morning and I went digging. Recall that Sudan: Africa’s Yugoslavia? provided background on the breakup of Sudan, and in Nightwatch: Syria, Jordan & Mali briefly described the north/south split in Mali.

I found a high quality map of African ethnic groups and cropped the area of interest from it.

Africa Ethnic Groups

Libya Toubou Ethnic Group

And then I found a Libya specific map, which disagreed a bit on the extent of inhabited areas in southern Libya. White in the crop from the larger map indicates the area is uninhabited.

Libya Ethnic Groups

Then I found the oil map. This seems to me to be a bright spot – the Toubou were marginalized under the Gadaffi regime so they have neither a geographic claim on Libyan oil nor would it seem they’d have any expectation of benefit from it. The nature of the situation would seem to indicate that oil revenue was used to make their lives harder.

Libya Oil Map

Starting with Nigeria and Mali in the west and ending with Sudan and Somalia in the east, Africa is in chaos as the old dividing line between Arab Muslim Norther Africa and black animist or Christian Southern Africa.

The colonial lines on the map, created only a hundred years ago, are also becoming blurred, as both U.S. military power and European development funds dry up due to a variety of factors. The ethno-linguistic map above may be a better guide to understanding happenings in Africa than the formal lines on the map, which have been shifting and blurring since European colonialism’s peak a century ago.

Africa Partition-1885-1914

Clearing Somalia Of al-Shabaab

Somalia Piracy 2011 03

This map, dated March of 2011, shows Mogadishu as a hostage holding location and little activity in Kismayo, three hundred miles further south.

Somalia 2012-08 Kismayo assault

Fifteen months later we find that Mogadishu’s warlords are shut down within the city. Ethiopian backed militias and African Union troops have surrounded al-Shabaab territory, and Kismayo is under

Somalia militant base of Kismayo attacked by Kenyan forces, dated September, 28th, 2012 provides a view into the chaotic situation on the ground.

I am puzzling over how to get timely, accurate intel on situations like this. Wikipedia is good enough for background – it’s freely available and entries for regions or countries are largely free of any obvious spin attempts. When the journalists of The Guardian or the BBC News publish an article they provide information that is vetted as well as one can for a place like Somalia, but this confirms the past, describes the present, and they avoid speculating about the future.

The unanswered questions I have include:

  • Will a Somali government installed by Ethiopia and Kenya be viewed as legitimate?
  • What good are anti-piracy/anti-terror efforts if the underlying problem, rooted in environment and economy, continues pushing young Somalis into such things?
  • What will happen regarding the oil fields in the north if the south does get stabilized?
  • How does instability in Yemen effect overall security in the Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea?

 

Imperial dissolution always produces long chains of unanticipated events. This is going to be even harder for the United States, due to the epistemic closure Bruce Bartlett described in Revenge Of The Reality-Based Community. We have a political party that has literally lost touch with reality, and they control the pursue strings via their majority in the House. If we don’t move as a nation to correct this we’ll get dragged into another foreign adventure even more disastrous than Afghanistan.

Pirates Of Somalia

Somalia Piracy 2011 03

This map of Somalia from early 2011 shows the internal political divisions and the type of pirate activity associated with each part of the 4,000km (2,480 mile) coastline. This map is very large and you can see fine detail if you click through to the full sized version. The newly formed Galmudug autonomous region appears to be the destination of choice for hostage keeping. I started digging and Wikipedia has what appears to be a detailed report Somali piracy. I am curious as to the origin, but it’s solid enough that I’m going to read it closely.

Horn Of Africa Piracy 2008

While the shoreline is listed as the least troubled, the Gulf of Aden shows the highest incidence of attacks. I think this combination is attributable to easy access to a volume of passing ships, which encourages attack, and the pressure of increasing enforcement, which seeks to deny that access by limiting bases of operation.

F-15 and P3 Orion aircraft at Camp Lemonnier

F-15 and P3 Orion aircraft at Camp Lemonnier

The United States keeps a presence in Djibouti, Camp Lemonnier. I zoomed in on the base and found these. The little triangles appear to be twin engined – probably F-15 Eagles. The large four engined aircraft are likely P3 Orion maritime surveillance aircraft.

Indian Ocean Piracy

The mainstream media reports on pirates of Somalia, but the problem has spread to the Arabian Sea and the western half of the Indian Ocean. I think this is thanks to increasingly tough enforcement in the Gulf of Aden and hard times continuing to push Somali fishermen into this new line of business. If you look closely you can see the contour lines from 2005 to 2011, an ever expanding radius of operation.

TCG-491-Gemlik

Combined Task Force 151 is the naval companion to the aircraft and troops at Camp Lemonnier. Per their web site, Combined Maritime Forces recently changed flagships to the TCG-492 Gemlik, a Turkish G class frigate. These are all derived from modernized U.S. frigates, and the photo here is the U.S.S. Flatley FFG-21 prior to her sale to Turkey.

The direct costs are known but the indirect costs are all over the board. Their busiest year pirates took in $238 million in ransoms, and the shipping business spent as much as $6.9 billion to count this. Somalia has hit bottom so their contribution to the problem will remain steady. But Yemen seems determined to follow them into disorder, and then neither side of the Gulf of Aden will be safe.

Earlier I wrote Middle East Straits and I didn’t include the Mandab Strait as a trouble point, but given the condition of Somalia, the declining fortunes of Yemen, the potential for already troubled Sudan to go completely out of control I think it should be on the list of troubled passages.

The Horn Of Africa

KenyaTanaRiverValley

Deadly Tribal Fighting Erupts In Kenya caught my eye yesterday, but I hesitated to add this, because we are going to wade into the Horn of Africa. While not a part of the Horn proper, which is defined by geography, Kenya has a large Somali population, and it also shares the same climate driven food security problems. The nature of the trouble in Kenya is a conflict that has been with us for more than ten thousand years – how do farmers and herders share water and food in times of drought?

HornOfAfricaDrought2011

Drought is not uncommon in this already arid region, but 2011 was extreme, uprooting people from Somalia and pushing them into Ethiopia and Kenya.

HornOfAfricaFood

HornOfAfricaFoodSecurity

The entire region is under stress, but pay attention to the speckled area. ‘Limited Humanitarian Access’. Remember Black Hawk Down?

HornOfAfricaClimateZones

You can move, adapt, or die when things change. When you’re in an arid land and drought hits there isn’t any adaptation – there simply isn’t enough water. You get moving or you die where you are.

KeynaEthnicGroups

Kenya’s dry northeast is ethnic Somali. The lines on the map are not as bad as the Caucasus, but there were western imperial adventures here, too. Kenya was a British holding, Somalia was French, and Ethiopia was held by Italy.

SomaliaEthnicGroups

So the Darod tribe is in the dry northeast of Kenya, but aid workers can go there. They’re in Ethiopia, but their territory is deemed unsafe. Their portion of Somalia is safe. What in the world is going on here?

SomaliaDivisions

Somalia is a country, but that is just lines on a western map. The reality on the ground is a bit different. The largely Ishaak region of Somalialand in the northwest and mostly Darod Puntland in the northwest are not internationally recognized, but they are basically self governing. The south has been in and out of chaos and starvation for the last twenty years. I think this map is also a bit dated – UIC is the Union of Islamic Courts and the Provisional Government was ready to implode before Kenya invaded and backed them.

So what does this have to do with Kenya? I don’t typically reference blog posts, but Kenya, Reluctant Regional Power neatly summed up what I had been seeing in other places – 63% of Kenya’s GDP is the service industry, and that is dominated by tourism. They won’t tolerate any trouble in Somalia interfering with this.

As evidence of Kenya’s move towards becoming a true regional power, Kenyan forces were the first to respond against the menacing al Shabaab militants after a media frenzy erupted following high-profile kidnaps along its border with Somalia. The Kenyan Government was forced to act, worried about its reputation, its own security, and the damage such abductions might do to country’s lucrative tourism industry. Beneath these reasons, however, lies perhaps the truth: Kenya is striving to be a regional powerhouse, and in order to elevate its political standing, it decided to exercise its military might. Since October 2011, Kenya began a full-scale military operation to root out al Shabaab, not only within its borders, but in neighbouring Somalia as well. Somalia’s own army proved insufficient and inherently weak, and as such Kenyan forces felt obligated to intervene. Although since this time, Ethiopian troops as well as African Union soldiers have also entered into the fight, Kenya is clearly leading the operation.

Striking cross border to deal with a regional problem is one thing, but what happens when the conflict is domestic and driven by climate change? Not only is there the friction between farmers and herders along the Tana, but 615Mw of the countries total 1,142Mw comes from hydroelectric power. If local electric supplies stumble due to drought and the seemingly imminent European banking sector crash hobbles the usual supply of tourists, Kenya’s tenure as a regional power might be fairly short.