I began reading about Syria literally the day I knew I was done with domestic elections and less than two weeks later I produced my first article. I delved into the civil war, and I checked up on water and wheat, which is something of a proxy for overall food security.
I had just received a Recorded Future account and I was using it pretty heavily to investigate various things, including Syria. I was particularly interested in the fate of the Russian naval supply station at Tartus, on the Alawite minority dominated coast. There were some murky maneuvers during the Cyprus bank crisis and I think some of it had to do with the Russian government’s desire for another location to replace Tartus.
News came in overnight of an Israeli strike near Damascus. I see a lot of chatter about Iranian missiles and Sarin gas. All that is certain is that there have been toxicology reports indicating at least one person was exposed to Sarin. The chain of custody for the evidence was being heavily criticized – some thought that this could have been a single execution done by Sunni defectors to the various Free Syrian Army groups in order to trick the U.S. into believing the Assad regime had used chemical weapons.
These are the thirteen articles I wrote being November 14th and February 17th. I am not going to get mixed up in the minutia of what just happened, as it’s a mob scene. I may break out Recorded Future again, or try to put some sensible bounds on what a post-Assad Syria looks like.
The Sanjak of Alexandretta went to Turkey in 1939. A Turkish peace keeping effort protecting the Alawites could lead to a de facto annexation of that region as well. I don’t know enough about the ethnic makeup and Turkish attitudes in general, but they are definitely disinterested in refugees crossing their border, and a firm hand in the area could alleviate that.
Analyzing Syria With Recorded Future (2/7/2013)
Recorded Future: Syria’s Civil War (2/10/2013)
Syria’s Water & Population (1/3/2013)
Losing The Euphrates (1/2/2013)
Syrian Agriculture Details (1/1/2013)
Russia Signals Assad’s Regime Not Viable (12/28/2012)
Syrian General Defects (12/27/2012)
Russia Prepping To Evacuate Syrian Port Of Tartus (12/19/2012)
Puzzling Over Kurdistan (12/18/2012)
The Oil Of Kurdistan (12/16/2012)
Stratfor: The Fall Of Assad (12/12/2012)
Syrian Wheat Outlook (12/8/2012)
Mapping Syria’s Armed Opposition (11/14/2012)